OpenAI’s Astra released by…?

Traders currently price "October 31" at 88% for "OpenAI’s Astra released by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 2.0 points. Full distribution: October 31 88%, September 30 75%, September 15 40%, August 31 15%. The market has traded $163K in total volume and resolves Oct 31, 2026. OpenAI revealed an internal version of Astra on August 1 as its next major model after it solved ten longstanding math problems, positioning the system as a significant capability jump beyond recent GPT-5.6 releases. Just six days later, the company paused portions of Astra’s development after internal tests showed advanced agentic coding and cybersecurity performance that could reach its “critical” risk threshold under the preparedness framework, triggering expanded safeguards and security reviews before any public or API deployment. This recent pause, combined with Astra’s classification as one of several upcoming models rather than a direct GPT successor, has shifted trader focus toward potential multi-month delays while OpenAI prioritizes defensive applications and robustness testing. Key upcoming catalysts include further benchmark disclosures, earnings commentary on timelines, and competitive releases from other labs that could influence release strategy.

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