Quebec General Election Winner

Traders currently price "PQ" at 67% for "Quebec General Election Winner". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 7.0 points. Full distribution: PQ 67%, CAQ 18%, PLQ 14%, QS 0%. The market has traded $760K in total volume and resolves Oct 5, 2026. Recent polls ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election show the Parti Québécois maintaining a lead in voting intentions around 30%, ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party near 25% and the Coalition Avenir Québec near 20%, with the Conservatives also competitive. This positioning reflects the PQ’s sustained strength among francophone voters and gains in recent by-elections, while the CAQ has seen sharp declines from its 2022 majority. The Liberals remain competitive in urban and non-francophone areas but trail among francophones. With roughly half of voters still undecided and the campaign period approaching, trader consensus assigns the PQ the highest implied probability of securing the most seats, though shifts in turnout or late developments could narrow the gap among the top three parties.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.