Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner

Traders currently price "Byron Donalds" at 98% for "Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner". Full distribution: Byron Donalds 98%, Jay Collins 1%, James Fishback 1%, Wilton Simpson 0%. The market has traded $3.0M in total volume and resolves Aug 18, 2026. Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead in the August 18, 2026, Republican primary for Florida governor, an open seat after Ron DeSantis reached term limits, due to President Trump’s early and explicit endorsement that has consolidated support among party voters and donors. Statewide polling among likely Republicans shows Donalds ahead by wide margins, often exceeding 30 points, while his fundraising totals surpass rivals including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and James Fishback by substantial amounts, bolstered by a $10 million contribution from GOP megadonor Ken Griffin. The Republican Party of Florida declined to host debates after determining only Donalds met polling and fundraising thresholds, and he has declined intra-party debates. With the primary days away, traders reflect this positioning in the market odds, though a major undisclosed development in the final stretch remains a theoretical risk to the outcome.

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