Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- ≤47
- 26%
- —
- 51
- 14%
- —
- 49
- 14%
- —
- 48
- 12%
- −0.5
- 50
- 12%
- −1.0
- 52
- 7%
- −1.4
- 53
- 3%
- −0.8
- 56
- 2%
- −0.9
- 54
- 2%
- −0.7
- 55
- 2%
- −1.7
- 57+
- 1%
- —
Traders currently price "≤47" at 26% for "Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?". Full distribution: ≤47 26%, 51 14%, 49 14%, 48 12%. The market has traded $2.8M in total volume and resolves Nov 3, 2026. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority and defend 22 seats in the 2026 midterms compared to 13 for Democrats, creating structural pressure in a cycle where the president's party historically loses ground. Recent ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball highlight competitive contests in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa, alongside retirements and primaries in states like Louisiana and Wyoming that have introduced candidate uncertainty. Generic ballot polling and special election results showing a modest Democratic edge have kept probabilities dispersed across 47 to 52 seats, reflecting the wide range of plausible outcomes depending on turnout in battleground states and any late shifts in the national environment.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.