Russia nuclear test by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 6% for "Russia nuclear test by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 6%, September 30, 2026 2%, November 30 0%, December 31 0%. The market has traded $6.2M in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. Russia maintains a nuclear testing moratorium since 1990 and has stated it will not resume explosive tests unless another party, such as the United States, does so first. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a test by late 2026, reflecting this policy alongside the absence of any such detonation despite heightened signaling tied to the Ukraine conflict. Key recent developments include Russia's November 2025 withdrawal of CTBT ratification, President Putin's directive for proposals on test preparations in response to U.S. statements, and successful non-explosive activities such as the May 2026 Sarmat ICBM launch and strategic forces exercises. The Novaya Zemlya test site remains prepared for potential resumption, while New START's February 2026 expiration removes one verification mechanism. Any shift would likely require a major diplomatic or military catalyst within the resolution window.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.