South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
- Darline Graham Nordone
- 90%
- +7.4
- Person H
- 50%
- —
- Person I
- 50%
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- Person J
- 50%
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- Person K
- 50%
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- Person L
- 50%
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- Person M
- 50%
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- Person N
- 50%
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- Person O
- 50%
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- Person P
- 50%
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- Person Q
- 50%
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- Person R
- 50%
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- Person S
- 50%
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- Person T
- 50%
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- Person U
- 50%
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- Person V
- 50%
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- Person W
- 50%
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- Person X
- 50%
- —
- Person Y
- 50%
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- Person Z
- 50%
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- Person AA
- 50%
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- Person AB
- 50%
- —
- Person AC
- 50%
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- Person AD
- 50%
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- Person AE
- 50%
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- Person AF
- 50%
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- Person AG
- 50%
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- Person AH
- 50%
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- Person AI
- 50%
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- Person AJ
- 50%
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- Person AK
- 50%
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- Person AL
- 50%
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- Person AM
- 50%
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- Person AN
- 50%
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- Person AO
- 50%
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- Other
- 50%
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- Ralph Norman
- 9%
- −9.0
- Russell Fry
- 0%
- —
- Nancy Mace
- 0%
- —
- Joe Wilson
- 0%
- —
- Mark Lynch
- 0%
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- Paul Dans
- 0%
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- William Timmons
- 0%
- —
- Sheri Biggs
- 0%
- —
- Pamela Evette
- 0%
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- André Bauer
- 0%
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- Alan Wilson
- 0%
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- Scott Bessent
- 0%
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- Trey Gowdy
- 0%
- —
- Mark Sanford
- 0%
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Traders currently price "Darline Graham Nordone" at 90% for "South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 7.4 points. Full distribution: Darline Graham Nordone 90%, Person H 50%, Person I 50%, Person J 50%. The market has traded $1.7M in total volume and resolves Aug 11, 2026. Darline Graham Nordone holds a commanding lead in the South Carolina Republican special Senate primary market due to her appointment as interim senator following Lindsey Graham’s July 2026 death, her strong name recognition as his sister, and Donald Trump’s endorsement. She finished first in the August 11 primary with roughly 33 percent, advancing to the August 25 runoff against Ralph Norman after a fragmented field that included Russell Fry and Mark Sanford split the remaining vote. Traders price the runoff outcome heavily in her favor given her incumbent status, established donor network, and the short timeline for challengers to consolidate support. A Norman upset or unexpected turnout surge among his congressional district base represent the main scenarios that could alter the current consensus.
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