Spain snap election called by...?

Traders currently price "August 31, 2026" at 1% for "Spain snap election called by...?". Full distribution: August 31, 2026 1%, December 31, 2025 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $190K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE-Sumar minority government has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to completing the full legislative term ending in August 2027, explicitly ruling out a 2026 snap election while prioritizing passage of the General State Budget. Regional contests in Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León, and Andalusia have shown continued rightward shifts favoring the PP and Vox, yet these results have not triggered parliamentary collapse or loss of key support from parties such as Junts. Traders therefore price the probability of an early dissolution in 2026 at roughly 18-30 percent, reflecting the absence of immediate catalysts and the prime minister’s constitutional prerogative to time elections. No major votes, coalition crises, or scheduled events are expected to force a decision before year-end.

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