Trump out as President by August 31?

Traders currently price "No" at 100% for "Trump out as President by August 31?". The market has traded $1.5M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Trump remains actively engaged as president, issuing executive orders and public remarks in mid-August 2026 with no announced health issues, resignation plans, or acute crises that would trigger immediate departure. Republican congressional majorities make swift impeachment and Senate conviction improbable within the two-week window, consistent with historical patterns where removal requires supermajorities absent bipartisan consensus. Earlier 2026 calls for 25th Amendment invocation or House resolutions tied to foreign policy disputes produced no sustained momentum or votes. Traders reflect this stability in pricing, viewing removal as structurally and politically remote absent unforeseen developments such as sudden incapacity or major scandal surfacing before month-end.

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