Ukraine election called by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 13% for "Ukraine election called by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 13%, August 31, 2026 1%, December 31, 2025 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $1.8M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ukraine's next presidential and parliamentary elections remain suspended under extended martial law, most recently renewed until October 31, 2026, consistent with constitutional restrictions during wartime. Legislative working groups advanced draft rules in early 2026 for potential post-war or special-period voting, including preparations for overseas voter lists, though major parties continue to tie any ballot to a prior ceasefire and security guarantees. External diplomatic pressure, particularly from the United States, has prompted discussions of pairing elections with a peace referendum, while official Ukrainian statements emphasize that fair conduct requires an end to active hostilities. These factors—legislative timelines, martial-law extensions, and linkage to conflict resolution—shape trader assessments of when parliament or the president might formally call a vote.

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