Ukraine election held by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 7% for "Ukraine election held by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 7%, December 31, 2025 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $2.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2025. Ongoing martial law, extended through October 2026, legally bars presidential and parliamentary elections under Ukraine’s constitution and electoral code, while the active conflict with Russia continues to drive repeated parliamentary approvals for 90-day renewals. Public polling consistently shows strong opposition to wartime voting, with majorities favoring any ballot only after a durable ceasefire or full peace agreement that would permit safe campaigning, updated voter rolls, and participation by displaced citizens and frontline troops. Zelenskyy has conditioned elections on security guarantees, and the Central Election Commission has highlighted logistical barriers from damaged infrastructure. Traders price low near-term probabilities accordingly, reflecting the requirement for verifiable de-escalation before martial law can lift and a vote can proceed.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.