Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 83% for "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?". The market has traded $2.5M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ongoing battlefield stalemate and incompatible core demands continue to block any comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement. Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated requirements for Ukrainian territorial concessions, particularly full control of Donbas, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy maintains positions centered on security guarantees, territorial integrity, and an unconditional ceasefire. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in early 2026, including sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, produced only prisoner exchanges and no progress on substantive issues. European-led diplomatic efforts have gained traction amid shifting U.S. priorities, yet Moscow has rejected recent frameworks. With the war entering its fifth year and no breakthrough signals emerging by mid-2026, trader consensus reflects the narrow window and persistent barriers to resolution before 2027.

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