US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

Traders currently price "August 31" at 18% for "US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 4.0 points. The market has traded $213K in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. The US Treasury revoked General License X on July 7, 2026, after attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, ending the 60-day sanctions waiver issued in June that had permitted Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and petroleum product sales through August 21. This followed an earlier 30-day relief in March aimed at easing global oil prices amid supply concerns. Renewed enforcement reflects heightened geopolitical risks overriding prior efforts to stabilize energy markets and curb volatility in benchmarks like Brent crude. With sanctions reinstated and wind-down deadlines passed, trader consensus on Polymarket assigns negligible implied probability to near-term reissuance, driven by persistent regional instability and enforcement priorities rather than immediate macroeconomic easing. Key upcoming catalysts include any FOMC-linked oil price signals or diplomatic shifts before late-August resolution deadlines.

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