Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Traders currently price "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 95% for "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.8 points. Full distribution: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 95%, Flavio Bolsonaro 86%, Renan Santos 9%, Romeu Zema 2%. The market has traded $463K in total volume and resolves Oct 4, 2026. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party holds a consistent first-round polling lead near 40 percent as he seeks a fourth term, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trails in the low-to-mid 30s after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Multiple right-of-center candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, remain in single digits and continue to fragment the opposition vote. Recent party conventions formalized slates, and lingering issues such as Flávio Bolsonaro’s earlier scandals have not altered the top-two positioning in latest surveys. The October 4 first round will decide advancement to the October 25 runoff under Brazil’s two-round electoral system, with voter concerns over crime, corruption, and economic performance shaping turnout dynamics in the remaining weeks.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.