Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Traders currently price "OpenAI" at 36% for "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 2.0 points. Full distribution: OpenAI 36%, Google 20%, Alibaba 13%, xAI 13%. The market has traded $119K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Anthropic's Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 variants currently lead most frontier benchmarks, including Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 63 and multiple LMSYS Arena boards, reflecting strong agentic coding and reasoning capabilities that have held the top position through mid-August 2026. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol family and xAI's newly released Grok 4.6 (August 12) have narrowed the gap, tying or approaching top scores on select metrics at lower prices, while Google's Gemini 3.x series and recent Flash updates excel in speed and cost-efficiency but trail overall intelligence rankings. This tight cluster among four labs, with performance converging within small Elo margins, drives trader focus on which company lands the next major capability jump before year-end. Rapid monthly releases and domain-specific strengths continue to shift implied probabilities on who will claim a #1 model by December 31.

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