Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Traders currently price "Gavin Newsom" at 13% for "Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: Gavin Newsom 13%, Tucker Carlson 12%, Gretchen Whitmer 11%, Kamala Harris 11%. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. As of mid-2026, no major-party candidates have made formal announcements for the 2028 presidential nomination, leaving the field in an early positioning phase ahead of the November midterms. Potential contenders such as Vice President JD Vance on the Republican side and figures like Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez among Democrats are testing support through exploratory activity, public statements, and polling while navigating term limits, Senate dynamics, and primary calendar rules set by the DNC. Recent signals include Gretchen Whitmer walking back a firm no-run comment, AOC declining to rule out a bid, and scattered exploratory committees by lesser-known or third-party names, though these have not shifted broad trader consensus that significant announcements remain unlikely before 2027. The 2026 midterms and subsequent lame-duck period represent key catalysts that could accelerate or delay formal entries depending on results and party positioning.

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