Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Traders currently price "Gadi Eizenkot" at 40% for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.3 points. Full distribution: Gadi Eizenkot 40%, Benjamin Netanyahu 37%, Naftali Bennett 13%, Avigdor Lieberman 3%. The market has traded $26.3M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus for Israel's next prime minister after the October 2026 Knesset election due to his rising profile as leader of the new Yashar party and strong centrist-security appeal among voters seeking an alternative to the incumbent. Recent polling shows his support edging ahead of Naftali Bennett's Together alliance with Yair Lapid, bolstered by Eizenkot's former IDF chief role, personal losses in the Gaza conflict, and criticism of coalition governance. Benjamin Netanyahu remains close behind, backed by Likud's projected seat strength and right-wing bloc loyalty despite coalition strains over military exemptions and prolonged multi-front operations. Bennett's merger aims to consolidate anti-Netanyahu forces but has not yet produced decisive separation. The narrow gap reflects persistent opposition fragmentation, voter priorities on security and accountability, and the structural need for a 61-seat majority in coalition negotiations.

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