Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Traders currently price "Gadi Eizenkot" at 56% for "Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?". Full distribution: Gadi Eizenkot 56%, Benjamin Netanyahu 28%, Naftali Bennett 6%, Avigdor Lieberman 4%. The market has traded $32.9M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party frequently projected as the largest faction with 23–26 seats, ahead of Likud, while Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in head-to-head suitability surveys by margins of 10–14 points. This positioning stems from voter shifts toward the center-right opposition amid dissatisfaction with the current coalition’s performance on security and governance issues following the October 2023 attacks. Netanyahu’s Likud has hovered near 20–23 seats after contentious primaries that expanded his control over the list, keeping his path to another term viable only through a narrow right-wing alliance. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad and smaller parties trail further back, with bloc math indicating the anti-Netanyahu side holds a narrow projected edge but faces coalition-formation hurdles. Trader consensus on Eisenkot reflects these consistent survey trends.

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