Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Traders currently price "1560" at 44% for "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?". Full distribution: 1560 44%, 1580 21%, 1600 17%. The market has traded $184K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Moonshot AI have pushed frontier models into the high 1600s on arena.ai’s Code Arena leaderboards for agentic and frontend coding tasks, with Claude Opus 5 variants and Kimi K3 trading the top spots through July and early August 2026. These gains stem from larger context windows, improved tool-use training, and specialized post-training on repository-scale engineering benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and LiveCodeBench. Chinese labs have narrowed the gap on practical UI and agentic workflows at lower inference cost, while U.S. labs retain edges on complex reasoning subsets. With roughly four months remaining, the key variables are whether any lab ships a major capability jump before year-end or if incremental scaling saturates current arenas. Traders are watching announced release windows and independent benchmark refreshes for decisive signals.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.