Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

Traders currently price "1525" at 100% for "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 3.6 points. Full distribution: 1525 100%, 1550 100%, 1575 85%, 1600 36%. The market has traded $112K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Recent releases have positioned Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 at the top of MathArena.ai with an 84.4% score on uncontaminated research-level problems as of late July 2026, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants near 80%. Traders are watching whether continued scaling, post-training on formal math datasets, or new frontier models expected in Q4 can push any system past the target threshold before year-end. Competitive pressure between Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google remains tight, while open-source contenders trail significantly. Key catalysts include upcoming model updates, potential benchmark expansions, and any demonstrated gains on ArXivMath or ArXivLean evaluations that could accelerate or stall progress.

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