Will any country leave NATO by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 4% for "Will any country leave NATO by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.8 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 4%, December 31, 2025 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. No NATO member has initiated formal withdrawal procedures as of mid-2026, despite periodic tensions. The North Atlantic Treaty’s Article 13 requires one year’s notice to the U.S. depository for exit, while U.S. law under the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act mandates Senate advice and consent by two-thirds vote or separate congressional action before any American departure. Early 2026 friction over limited allied support during the Iran conflict prompted public criticism from President Trump, including references to NATO as a “paper tiger,” yet those signals eased after the July Ankara summit where he confirmed continued U.S. membership. Other allies have occasionally discussed alignment shifts, but none have advanced denunciation notices. Institutional thresholds, alliance cohesion incentives, and the absence of active exit processes continue to shape trader assessments of near-term departures.

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