Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Traders currently price "Yes" at 99% for "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?". The market has traded $173K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Apple's established annual hardware cycle, reinforced by consistent supply chain reporting and recent analyst confirmations from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, drives the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders expect the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max to launch alongside the first foldable iPhone during a September keynote, following the company's typical fall cadence for premium models. This split-launch strategy, shifting standard and budget variants like the iPhone 18e to spring 2027, still qualifies as a 2026 release for flagship devices. Low-probability risks include unforeseen component shortages or manufacturing delays that have occasionally shifted prior timelines by weeks, though Apple's track record makes major disruptions unlikely before year-end.

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