Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Traders currently price "No" at 88% for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. The market has traded $2.7M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2027. US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. This view aligns with trader consensus favoring no invasion by the end of that year. Internal PLA leadership disruptions, including high-level purges and reduced Central Military Commission capacity, have raised questions about operational readiness. Beijing continues short-of-war coercion through military exercises, diplomatic pressure, and outreach to Taiwan’s opposition ahead of 2028 elections, while prioritizing narrative shifts over immediate military action. These factors, alongside Taiwan’s ongoing defense preparations, underpin the low implied probability of an invasion within the resolution window.

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