Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 61% for "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 15.0 points. Full distribution: December 31, 2026 61%, December 31 0%, November 30 0%, March 31, 2026 0%. The market has traded $3.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. President Trump announced on July 30 that his Board of Peace reached a framework agreement with Hamas for the phased, complete disarmament of the group and other armed factions in Gaza. The plan calls for inventorying and storing weapons under Palestinian oversight, verification by an international committee, transfer of governance and security roles to a technocratic administration, and eventual Israeli withdrawal once stages are certified. Hamas officials have confirmed acceptance of the core terms after mediated talks involving Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, though sequencing disputes and demands for concurrent Israeli steps remain. Israel has expressed skepticism pending implementation details, with the process expected to unfold over several months if both sides proceed.

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