Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Traders currently price "↑$900B" at 81% for "Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 5.5 points. Full distribution: ↑$900B 81%, ↑$1.0T 64%, ↓$800B 57%, ↑$1.25T 37%. The market has traded $990K in total volume and resolves Jan 1, 2027. OpenAI’s most recent private valuation stands at $852 billion following its record $122 billion funding round closed in March 2026, which included major commitments from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank at a post-money price well above the prior $730 billion pre-money mark. With roughly four-and-a-half months remaining until December 31, 2026, trader focus centers on whether additional capital raises, revenue scaling—currently cited near $25 billion annualized run-rate—or an accelerated IPO can push the mark to common thresholds such as $900 billion or $1 trillion. Market-implied odds reflect strong but not certain momentum, tempered by the company’s ongoing GAAP losses and the absence of fresh funding announcements since spring. Key near-term catalysts include potential follow-on tranches from existing investors and any S-1 filing updates that could reprice the private round ahead of year-end resolution.

Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.