Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 6% for "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?". Full distribution: December 31 6%, June 30 0%, January 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $21.8M in total volume and resolves Jun 30, 2026. Reza Pahlavi has remained in exile since 1978 and continues to advocate for a secular democratic transition amid Iran's 2025–2026 protests, while publicly stating readiness to return as soon as conditions permit—even prior to full regime change—to support defections and stability. Iranian authorities retain institutional control with no verified safe passage or entry reported as of mid-2026. Key barriers include security threats, limited domestic infrastructure for his arrival, and the regime's continuity. Recent developments feature his meetings with U.S. officials, diaspora events, and policy comments, yet these have not altered his physical status outside the country. The market resolution hinges on any confirmed visit by December 31, 2026, leaving scope for shifts tied to protest escalation, diplomatic openings, or internal fractures.

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