Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 49% for "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 49%, October 31 18%, September 30 11%, August 31 3%. The market has traded $1.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Russian forces have conducted sustained infiltration operations into Kostyantynivka since mid-2026, supported by glide bomb strikes, reaching parts of the city and prompting a July 3 Russian Defense Ministry claim of full control that independent assessments have not confirmed. Ukrainian units maintain presence throughout the city, conduct clearing operations against infiltrators, and hold rotations amid ongoing attritional fighting. The city forms part of the Donbas fortress belt, with its capture viewed as a step toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, yet Russian advances remain incremental without consolidated seizure or rapid breakthroughs as of early August. Trader sentiment on near-term resolution dates reflects this grinding dynamic, where Russian pressure competes with Ukrainian defensive measures and the absence of decisive operational gains.

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