Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 12% for "Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 0.5 points. Full distribution: December 31 12%, September 30 3%, May 31 0%, March 31 0%. The market has traded $2.2M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Ukrainian forces regained full control of Stepnohirsk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast during May 2026 through coordinated special operations by military intelligence units that cleared Russian positions from fortified urban areas along the E105 highway. Subsequent assessments through mid-2026 confirm Ukrainian defensive consolidation, successful repulsion of infiltration attempts, and a shift of Russian resources to other axes following the collapse of earlier offensive efforts west of Orikhiv. These battlefield changes underpin trader consensus reflected in low implied probabilities for full Russian capture by the September 30, 2026 resolution date, as limited offensive capacity persists in the sector amid ongoing localized activity near adjacent settlements. Any renewed Russian concentration of forces or Ukrainian resource reallocation could influence momentum within the remaining timeframe.

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