Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 6% for "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 6%, December 31, 2025 0%, June 30, 2026 0%. The market has traded $5.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2025. US intelligence assessments from early August 2026 have highlighted the risk of Russia conducting limited hybrid or conventional actions against NATO members, such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, or small-scale incursions on the eastern flank targeting the Baltics or Poland, potentially to test Article 5 commitments before any Ukraine war resolution. These warnings align with ongoing Russian "Phase Zero" activities, including airspace violations, drone incursions, and reported false-flag preparations using seized Ukrainian drones, as flagged by Lithuanian and Polish officials in late July and early August. Recent cross-border strikes between Russia and Ukraine, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and Russian missile barrages on Kyiv, have sustained tensions without direct NATO involvement. Traders monitor NATO reinforcement of eastern defenses, potential North Korean troop deployments to Russia, and diplomatic efforts for a Ukraine settlement as factors that could alter escalation probabilities within any resolution window.

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