Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 11% for "Will Tesla release Optimus by...?". The market has traded $107K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Tesla's Q2 2026 earnings update shifted Optimus Gen 3 production guidance from a firm late-July or August Fremont start to a vaguer "later this year," with the dedicated line still in installation and first units limited to internal training data collection rather than customer delivery. Cumulative low-hundreds of prior builds remain non-production prototypes, while the AI5 chip and 22-DoF hands advance toward volume capability. External sales face supply-chain and reliability hurdles before any meaningful ramp, with 2027 cited for useful outside-Tesla deployment. Traders weigh these timeline slips against Musk's 1-million-unit annual target and competitive humanoid progress when assessing implied odds on near-term release thresholds.

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