Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Traders currently price "Yes" at 96% for "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?". The market has traded $335K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The U.S. Constitution sets midterm elections for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of even-numbered years, establishing a fixed schedule that has held without interruption across more than two centuries. With no active legislation, executive orders, or court rulings proposing delays as of mid-2026, and absent any national emergency or institutional breakdown, traders assign overwhelming probability to the elections occurring on time. Historical precedent reinforces this view, as even periods of war, economic crisis, and partisan conflict have not altered the date. Realistic factors that could still shift outcomes remain limited to extreme contingencies, such as a widespread constitutional crisis, catastrophic national emergency preventing voting, or unprecedented congressional action to postpone the contests.

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