Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Traders currently price "December 31, 2026" at 11% for "Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?". Full distribution: December 31, 2026 11%, October 31 0%, December 31 0%, March 31, 2026 0%. The market has traded $561K in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. Republicans hold a 53-seat Senate majority after the 2024 elections but lack the 60 votes needed for cloture on most legislation, creating pressure to reform or eliminate the filibuster via the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules reinterpretation. President Trump has repeatedly urged Senate Majority Leader John Thune to invoke this step for the SAVE America Act, voter measures, appropriations, and debt-ceiling legislation, with public calls intensifying in February, March, and July 2026. Thune and some colleagues have resisted full elimination due to concerns over minority retaliation and institutional precedent, though narrower changes like a talking filibuster have been discussed internally. The August 2026 recess and November midterms, where Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber, remain key near-term variables that could shift incentives around any rules vote.

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