Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 89% for "Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. The market has traded $270K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The January 2026 U.S. military operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro has not escalated into broader invasions or occupations across the region. Subsequent diplomatic re-engagement with the interim government, combined with the Trump administration’s emphasis on bilateral pressure, sanctions, and targeted counter-cartel actions rather than sustained ground campaigns, has shaped trader views. National Defense Strategy references to the Monroe Doctrine and credible options against narco-terrorists prioritize access to key terrain and negotiations over full-scale intervention. Limited joint operations, such as those in Ecuador, and the absence of new major strikes or deployments through mid-2026 reinforce the market’s strong consensus against an invasion occurring by year-end.

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