Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 96% for "Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?". The market has traded $1.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Traders assign a 96% probability against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 because repeated early-year threats of military action or tariffs by President Trump have shifted toward diplomatic negotiations with Denmark over expanded U.S. military facilities under existing 1951 agreements. Greenland's leaders and Danish officials have uniformly rejected any sovereignty transfer, while NATO allies have signaled support for Danish territorial integrity and conducted joint exercises in the region. Congressional pushback from both parties, combined with ongoing talks on Arctic security cooperation rather than annexation, has reinforced expectations that military force will not be used. Late-year developments such as a breakdown in base negotiations, major Russian or Chinese Arctic moves, or abrupt policy reversal could still alter the trajectory before December 31.

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