Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 5% for "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?". Full distribution: December 31 5%, December 31, 2025 0%, March 31 0%, January 31 0%. The market has traded $14.2M in total volume and resolves Mar 31, 2026. **US-Venezuela relations have shifted markedly since the January 3, 2026, U.S. military operation (Operation Absolute Resolve) that captured Nicolás Maduro via targeted strikes and special forces extraction, leading to Delcy Rodríguez’s interim presidency and Maduro’s U.S. arraignment on narco-terrorism charges.** This followed 2025 military buildup and Caribbean interdictions tied to drug trafficking. Diplomatic ties were restored in March 2026, with U.S. officials engaging on oil marketing, sanctions relief, minerals access, and economic stabilization under a phased transition framework. Humanitarian pressures intensified after June 2026 earthquakes near Caracas. Trader sentiment on invasion markets reflects debate over whether the limited January action constitutes an “invasion,” combined with low probability of broader occupation given current diplomatic engagement and de facto U.S. influence over Venezuelan energy policy without sustained ground forces. Key variables include any escalation signals, regional reactions, or policy shifts ahead of potential 2026–2027 deadlines.

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