Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Traders currently price "Yes" at 100% for "Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?". The market has traded $199K in total volume and resolves Aug 15, 2026. The Workers’ Party formally nominated President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a fourth term at its national convention on August 2, 2026, with the party leadership and allied center-left groups confirming his candidacy alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin. This action occurred well ahead of the August 15 candidate registration deadline that governs the October 4 first-round vote, producing near-unanimous trader consensus reflected in the 99.7 percent implied probability. Lula’s eligibility for a consecutive second term and the absence of any competing PT contenders have further reinforced positioning. Late developments that could still shift the outcome remain limited but include an unforeseen court ruling on eligibility, a sudden health-related withdrawal, or an internal party reversal before registration closes.

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