Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 98% for "Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?". The market has traded $1.0M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Republican majorities in Congress following the 2024 elections have produced a low probability of House articles of impeachment against President Trump before the end of 2026. Traders view the upcoming midterm elections as unlikely to deliver the Democratic gains required for majority support, given historical patterns of limited opposition-party success against unified Republican control. Even if proceedings advanced, the Senate’s two-thirds conviction threshold would demand bipartisan backing that remains absent. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or an unexpected midterm reversal could introduce volatility, yet current pricing embeds the structural barriers of partisan alignment and procedural requirements.

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