Zambia Presidential Election Winner
- Hakainde Hichilema
- 94%
- +11.6
- Person A
- 50%
- —
- Person B
- 50%
- —
- Person C
- 50%
- —
- Person D
- 50%
- —
- Person E
- 50%
- —
- Person F
- 50%
- —
- Person G
- 50%
- —
- Person H
- 50%
- —
- Person I
- 50%
- —
- Person J
- 50%
- —
- Person K
- 50%
- —
- Person L
- 50%
- —
- Person M
- 50%
- —
- Person N
- 50%
- —
- Person O
- 50%
- —
- Person P
- 50%
- —
- Person Q
- 50%
- —
- Person R
- 50%
- —
- Person S
- 50%
- —
- Person T
- 50%
- —
- Person U
- 50%
- —
- Person V
- 50%
- —
- Person W
- 50%
- —
- Person X
- 50%
- —
- Person Y
- 50%
- —
- Person Z
- 50%
- —
- Other
- 50%
- —
- Brian Mundubile
- 6%
- −11.9
- Fred M'membe
- 0%
- —
Traders currently price "Hakainde Hichilema" at 94% for "Zambia Presidential Election Winner". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 11.6 points. Full distribution: Hakainde Hichilema 94%, Person A 50%, Person B 50%, Person C 50%. The market has traded $200K in total volume and resolves Aug 14, 2026. Hakainde Hichilema’s commanding position as the frontrunner reflects his status as incumbent UPND president seeking a second term after steering debt restructuring and economic stabilization measures. Pre-election polls consistently showed him leading with around 60 percent support against a fragmented opposition field, with Brian Mundubile of the Tonse Alliance as the primary challenger. The August 13 vote produced early counts favoring Hichilema, and counting resumed after a brief nationwide pause prompted by reports of polling disruptions. Trader consensus prices in a high probability of his victory given these trends and historical incumbent advantages in Zambian elections. Challenges could still arise from final tabulation disputes, potential court petitions over alleged irregularities, or shifts in remaining results if turnout patterns or opposition strongholds alter the margin.
Odds sourced live from Polymarket, refreshed through the day. Prediction-market participation carries risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Informational only — not investment advice.