Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Traders currently price "No" at 71% for "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 4.0 points. The market has traded $3.6M in total volume and resolves Nov 3, 2026. **Traders assign an 82% probability that the proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires fails to pass the November 2026 election.** The measure, backed by SEIU-UHW and filed as Initiative 25-0024, would tax net worth above $1 billion (based on residency as of early 2026) to fund healthcare, K-14 education, and food assistance amid federal cuts. Supporters submitted over 1.5 million signatures in April 2026—well above the ~875,000 threshold—with verification due by June 25, 2026. However, Governor Gavin Newsom has actively opposed qualification, while an opposition coalition has begun organized campaigning. Legal challenges, potential billionaire relocation reducing the tax base, and historical resistance to novel wealth taxes contribute to the current trader consensus reflected in the odds. Qualification itself remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.

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