Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Traders currently price "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 79% for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: Flávio Bolsonaro 79%, Renan Santos 12%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 5%, Fernando Haddad 1%. The market has traded $4.3M in total volume and resolves Oct 4, 2026. Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant position in trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote because he has consolidated the core right-wing and evangelical voter base behind the Liberal Party candidacy, following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and ineligibility. Recent polling from June shows him trailing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by roughly 10 points in first-round scenarios while outpacing fragmented alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. A May Banco Master film-funding scandal temporarily eroded Flávio’s numbers and lifted Lula’s runoff margins, yet no rival has capitalized enough to displace him as the primary opposition standard-bearer. Renan Santos draws modest youth and activist support but remains distant in aggregates, while other listed figures register negligible shares amid the two-round system’s emphasis on the leading pair.

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