Fed Decision in December?

Traders currently price "No change" at 68% for "Fed Decision in December?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved down 1.0 points. Full distribution: No change 68%, 25 bps increase 28%, 25 bps decrease 5%, 50+ bps decrease 1%. The market has traded $141K in total volume and resolves Dec 9, 2026. Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside a softer-than-expected jobs report with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, have shaped market-implied odds for the December FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, traders assign a 67.5% probability to no change, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent stance amid above-target inflation pressures from energy supply shocks and a 27.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike driven by hawkish committee signals and revised projections pointing to potential tightening. The low odds for cuts underscore limited downside risks in the current labor and price environment, with upcoming August CPI and September FOMC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts for rate path adjustments.

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