FED / RATESLIVE

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Pause–Pause–Pause56%▲ 8.0pt 24h

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

Pause–Pause–Pause: 56%; +8.0
Other: 44%; −3.0
Pause–Pause–Cut: 2%; −1.1
Pause–Cut–Pause: 1%; —
Pause–Cut–Cut: 0%; —
Cut–Pause–Pause: 0%; —
Cut–Pause–Cut: 0%; —
Cut–Cut–Pause: 0%; —
Cut–Cut–Cut: 0%; —

VOLUME

$693K

24H VOLUME

$19K

LIQUIDITY

$135K

RESOLVES

Oct 28, 2026

Traders currently price "Pause–Pause–Pause" at 56% for "Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 8.0 points. Full distribution: Pause–Pause–Pause 56%, Other 44%, Pause–Pause–Cut 2%, Pause–Cut–Pause 1%. The market has traded $693K in total volume and resolves Oct 28, 2026. Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1% has anchored trader expectations for three consecutive FOMC pauses through October 2026, reflected in the 55.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause. The July 28–29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% featured three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscoring a hawkish tilt amid energy-driven price pressures and solid GDP growth. Market-implied odds for any near-term easing remain minimal at under 3%, consistent with the Fed’s June projections and futures pricing that now contemplate possible tightening later in the year. The September 15–16 meeting and upcoming CPI releases represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift the current consensus.

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// MORE FED / RATES MARKETS

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