FED / RATESLIVE

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Pause–Pause–Pause60%▲ 4.0pt 24h

// MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITIES

Pause–Pause–Pause: 60%; +4.0
Other: 40%; −5.0
Pause–Pause–Cut: 1%; −0.6
Cut–Pause–Pause: 0%; −0.8
Cut–Pause–Cut: 0%; —
Cut–Cut–Pause: 0%; —
Cut–Cut–Cut: 0%; −0.5
Pause–Cut–Pause: 0%; —
Pause–Cut–Cut: 0%; —

VOLUME

$712K

24H VOLUME

$13K

LIQUIDITY

$75K

RESOLVES

Sep 16, 2026

Traders currently price "Pause–Pause–Pause" at 60% for "Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 4.0 points. Full distribution: Pause–Pause–Pause 60%, Other 40%, Pause–Pause–Cut 1%, Cut–Pause–Pause 0%. The market has traded $712K in total volume and resolves Sep 16, 2026. Recent FOMC communications and elevated inflation readings have anchored trader expectations around a pause-pause-pause path for the June, July, and September 2026 meetings, with the 59.5% implied probability reflecting sustained price pressures and a divided committee reluctant to ease. Geopolitical tensions driving oil prices higher have reinforced concerns over sticky core inflation, while labor market resilience and the absence of clear disinflationary signals have shifted market-implied odds away from near-term cuts. The low 1.3% probability on pause-pause-cut underscores limited conviction in easing before year-end data improves, though any sharper-than-expected moderation in August CPI or employment figures could still alter the September outcome.

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// MORE FED / RATES MARKETS

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?86%Fed Decision in September?62%Fed rate hike in 2026?59%What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?35%

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