Fed rate cut by...?

Traders currently price "December Meeting" at 16% for "Fed rate cut by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: December Meeting 16%, October Meeting 6%, September Meeting 2%, January Meeting 0%. The market has traded $3.1M in total volume and resolves Jun 17, 2026. Recent July CPI data showing headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer core print at 2.5% and weak nonfarm payrolls have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range through the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Persistent above-target inflation driven by energy and supply shocks, combined with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting, continues to anchor market-implied odds against near-term easing. Labor market cooling and upcoming releases—including August 19 FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium—remain key swing factors that could shift consensus on the timing of any first cut.

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