How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Traders currently price "4" at 47% for "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: 4 47%, 5 33%, 6 9%, 7 2%. The market has traded $7.4M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Iran since the February 28 outbreak of direct conflict, alongside expanded targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions, including strikes on leadership and military sites in both countries, form the core of recent activity amid ongoing proxy confrontations involving groups such as the Houthis and Iraqi militias. Renewed Israel-Iran exchanges in early June, following the April ceasefire, have reinforced trader focus on these two primary fronts without clear expansion to additional sovereign states. With half the year elapsed and diplomatic efforts ongoing, the market's emphasis on four or five countries reflects the current concentration of verified strikes and limited evidence of broader escalation to new targets like Syria or Yemen in the resolution window.

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