How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

Traders currently price "0 (0 bps)" at 48% for "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: 0 (0 bps) 48%, 1 (25 bps) 34%, 2 (50 bps) 14%, 3 (75 bps) 3%. The market has traded $163K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Elevated inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target, recently reported near 3.4-3.5% year-over-year amid energy supply shocks, represents the dominant driver behind Polymarket's market-implied odds favoring zero or one 25-basis-point hike through year-end 2026. The FOMC has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% across multiple 2026 meetings despite three dissents at the July gathering signaling hawkish pressure, with solid labor market conditions, resilient GDP growth, and productivity gains supporting a data-dependent stance over aggressive tightening. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, reflects uncertainty around the September FOMC decision and Jackson Hole communications, as forward-looking projections balance persistent price pressures against the risk of slowing activity. Upcoming inflation releases and policy signals will likely influence shifts in these probabilities.

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