Iran full airspace closure by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 55% for "Iran full airspace closure by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 55%, September 30 46%, August 31 32%, August 15 23%. The market has traded $7.0M in total volume and resolves Aug 31, 2026. Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets in March 2026 prompted a full closure of the Tehran Flight Information Region, followed by Iranian missile and drone responses that sustained regional tensions. Partial reopenings began in April and advanced in phases through June, with the eastern sector allowing limited overflights while the western portion stayed restricted amid a US-Iran agreement that includes IAEA access steps. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing diplomatic implementation risks, potential for renewed escalation tied to nuclear site disputes or proxy activities, and scheduled milestones in the coming weeks that could trigger renewed restrictions or further easing of airspace controls.

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