Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 29% for "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. Full distribution: December 31 29%, October 31 0%, December 31 0%, November 30 0%. The market has traded $4.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. The fragile October 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire under the U.S.-brokered framework remains formally in effect but faces repeated strains from mutual violations and stalled implementation of Phase II. Israel maintains control of roughly 53-59% of Gaza territory along the “yellow line” while conducting near-daily strikes that have killed hundreds of Palestinians since the truce began, citing threats from Hamas operatives. Hamas has rejected disarmament proposals tied to reconstruction or governance reforms by the Board of Peace and National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, insisting instead on full Israeli withdrawal, unrestricted aid flows, and permanent war termination. Recent Cairo talks in early June 2026 focused on aid corridors, border reopenings, and violation complaints, yet core disagreements over sequencing persist. These dynamics, alongside limited external pressure amid the 2026 Iran conflict, shape trader assessments of cancellation risks tied to escalation thresholds or negotiation breakdowns.

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