Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Traders currently price "December 31" at 22% for "Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 1.0 points. The market has traded $434K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Jerome Powell's 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor runs through January 31, 2028, providing statutory protection against removal except for cause, which underpins trader expectations of continuity following his May 2026 departure as chair. After Kevin Warsh assumed the chairmanship, Powell stated in late April that he would remain on the board for a period to be determined pending full resolution and transparency of the inspector general's review into the Fed's headquarters renovation project. Market-implied odds reflect this timeline amid broader monetary policy considerations, including inflation data releases and FOMC communications, with potential catalysts such as investigation updates or administration pressure that could accelerate or delay an exit before the fixed expiration.

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