Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Traders currently price "Karen Bass" at 63% for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election". Full distribution: Karen Bass 63%, Nithya Raman 38%, Rick Caruso 0%, Asaad Alnajjar 0%. The market has traded $13.1M in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Incumbent Karen Bass leads the November runoff matchup against City Councilmember Nithya Raman following the June 2 nonpartisan primary, where Bass secured a plurality near 34% and Raman edged Spencer Pratt for second place at roughly 29% after late mail-ballot counting. Bass benefits from broad establishment support across Los Angeles neighborhoods and endorsements from state Democratic leaders, reflecting trader assessments of incumbency advantages in a heavily Democratic city. Raman, a progressive former Bass ally, draws strength from voter frustration over homelessness, housing costs, and public safety, consolidating left-leaning coalitions in the runoff. Minor candidates including Pratt remain sidelined below 1% in market pricing, underscoring the binary contest dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.

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