Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Traders currently price "Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%" at 94% for "Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair". Full distribution: Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% 94%, Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% 4%, Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5% 0%, Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5% 0%. The market has traded $160K in total volume and resolves Dec 31, 2026. Kevin Warsh's May 2026 confirmation as Fed chair has anchored trader expectations for elevated policy rates, with the federal funds target holding steady near 3.5-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings amid sticky inflation above the 2% goal. Markets interpret his communications as hawkish, prioritizing price stability over rapid easing and leaving room for potential hikes by year-end if supply pressures or growth persist. This backdrop has driven the strong consensus around a rate above 2.5% under his tenure. A sharp economic downturn or decisive inflation drop could still open the door to deeper cuts that shift this outcome.

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