Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Traders currently price "Magdalena Andersson" at 81% for "Next Prime Minister of Sweden". Over the past 24 hours that probability moved up 0.5 points. Full distribution: Magdalena Andersson 81%, Ulf Kristersson 17%, Jimmie Åkesson 3%, Ebba Busch 0%. The market has traded $3.3M in total volume and resolves Sep 13, 2026. Recent polling averages ahead of Sweden's September 13, 2026 general election show the Social Democrats holding a sustained lead near 32-34 percent, supporting a projected Red-Green bloc majority of roughly 53-55 percent against the governing Tidö parties at 42-44 percent. This positioning underpins trader consensus around Magdalena Andersson as the most likely next prime minister. Ulf Kristersson's Moderates trail within a right-leaning bloc that has lost ground since 2022, while smaller parties including the Sweden Democrats register limited standalone prospects for leading government formation. No major shifts in coalition dynamics or late-breaking events have altered these trends in recent weeks.

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